Claims-verified indemnity
Structure 2 of Inference Re: what happens once claims start accumulating against attested deployments. This is where Volume 1’s underwriting fundamentals — rating & pricing and the loss ratio — meet the evidence stack.
The first verified loss ratio
Section titled “The first verified loss ratio”Parametric triggers get the market started without loss history. But every policy written on an attested deployment does something no AI policy has done before: it pairs claims outcomes with an independently verified exposure population. As those claims accumulate, “the first verified loss ratio emerges — enabling indemnity pricing with a real denominator.” GROUNDED · Brochure
In Volume 1 terms: the loss ratio is losses ÷ premium, and it is the hub of the flywheel. What was missing for AI risk was never the numerator — losses will arrive on their own schedule — it was a denominator anyone could trust. See the missing denominator.
Behaviorally-adjusted premiums
Section titled “Behaviorally-adjusted premiums”Once behavior is continuously attested, price can follow behavior:
- “Credit for cleaner attestation records.” GROUNDED · Brochure An insured whose receipts show low drift, few scope-exceedance blocks, and healthy review completion earns a defensible discount — the AI-liability version of a good-driver record.
- This is the same mechanism as schedule rating from Volume 1: a documented credit for a demonstrated risk characteristic. The difference is the documentation — a notarized attestation history instead of a questionnaire. STABLE
- The renewal conversation writes itself: the insured’s own evidence is the submission. (Customer success runs on this — see 22-04.)
Experience rating and credibility weighting, in producer language
Section titled “Experience rating and credibility weighting, in producer language”Two Volume-1 concepts do the heavy lifting here:
| Concept | Plain version | In Inference Re |
|---|---|---|
| Experience rating | Price a risk from its own verified history rather than the class average. STABLE | Possible only once attested deployments accumulate paired attestation-and-claims data. |
| Credibility weighting | How much weight the insured’s own experience gets versus the book rate — more data, more weight. STABLE | The exposure-unit definition and credibility-weighting approach are a cohort deliverable, to be published as an open working paper. GROUNDED · Brochure |
The producer’s takeaway: a brand-new attested deployment is priced mostly on the book (low credibility); a deployment with a long, clean receipt chain earns its own rate. Nobody gets to assert their way to a discount — the receipts carry the weight.
Why this compounds
Section titled “Why this compounds”“Every policy written generates the data that prices the next one. The product compounds.” GROUNDED · Brochure That is Volume 1’s flywheel restated at market scale: evidence → better selection and defensible credits → lower loss ratio → capacity → more attested premium → richer experience base → repeat. The claims-verified structure is the flywheel’s second lap.
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